What Haryana victory will mean for Congress. Explained in 5 points

The CVoter exit poll on Saturday predicted a Congress victory in the Haryana Assembly election. The post-poll survey reveals that the Congress is expected to win 50-58 out of 90 Assembly seats. The magic number in the Assembly is 45, and the exit poll suggests that the Congress will get a comfortable majority. Winning Haryana will give the Congress, which has been restricted to just three states on its own, a much-needed boost.
On the other hand, the CVoter exit poll suggests that the incumbent BJP, which has been in power in Haryana since 2014, is expected to win just 20–28 seats in the 2024 Haryana Assembly election.
The exit poll for Haryana is based on 13,817 interviews conducted in all 90 Assembly constituencies. Health warning: Exit polls can get it wrong.
If the Congress wins Haryana, like the exit poll is suggesting, it will help the party and other INDIA bloc members on multiple fronts. Here are the five key points that explain the meaning and impact of a Congress win in Haryana.
A Congress victory in Haryana, as predicted by the CVoter exit poll on Saturday, would build on the party’s impressive performance in the recent Lok Sabha elections in the state.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Congress shared the 10 parliamentary seats in Haryana equally with the BJP, winning five seats. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP swept all the Lok Sabha seats.
This state-level victory in Haryana would further solidify the momentum gained from the Lok Sabha elections, marking another crucial win in North India.
It demonstrates Congress’ ability to translate national-level gains into state-level successes.
Himachal Pradesh is among the few states that Congress has, and Haryana will be a sweet addition to it in the north.
Haryana, being a key agricultural state and geographically close to the national capital New Delhi, holds significant importance. As seen in the recent farmer protests, the state served as a critical passage for farmers from various parts of Haryana and Punjab who often marched towards New Delhi.
A Congress victory in Haryana here also indicates strong support from the farming community, a key voting bloc in Haryana’s political discourse, which regularly blocked the farmers’ way at Shambhu border.
The farmers are still agitating for a law on minimum support price (MSP).
The farmers’ agitation against the now-withdrawn farm laws, which was particularly intense in Haryana, has left a lasting impression on the farming community. The Congress victory could also attest to the discontent among Haryana’s farming community towards the ruling BJP.
Congress’s ability to capitalise on this sentiment could be seen as a decisive factor in their victory.
A potential Congress victory in Haryana would also show the party’s ability to garner support from the Dalit community. The Jat-plus-Dalit factor was considered crucial if the party was to emerge victorious in Haryana.
Despite Bhupinder Hooda, a former Haryana Chief Minister from Congress, being at the forefront of the party’s election campaign, the party had refrained from naming him the Chief Ministerial candidate.
The move was likely influenced by another senior Dalit leader, Kumari Selja, who was also eyeing the top post. If the exit poll is to be believed, not naming a CM candidate during the campaign might have paid off.
Dalits make up 20% of Haryana’s population, with the Jatavs being the largest group. Other significant communities include the Valmikis, Dhanuks, and Mazhabi Sikhs.
The success shows that Congress has managed to maintain and possibly strengthen its hold on the Dalit and backward classes, which are crucial voting blocs in Haryana. Among the OBCs, the Jats, with 25% of the state’s electorate, carry significant political clout.
Given the competitive political battle, with four fronts where other parties like the AAP, BJP and the JJP were also vying for these votes, the victory looks like a significant achievement for Congress.
A Congress victory in Haryana would mean that the BJP would lose control over another key economic and cyber hub, Gurugram, which is one of India’s major business centres.
This loss, combined with the BJP’s earlier losses in Telangana and Karnataka in 2023 that house the other two cyber hubs, Hyderabad and Bengaluru, means all major tech cities slipping out of the BJP’s hands.
Gurugram generates substantial revenue for Haryana, with excise revenue of Rs 2,600 crore in 2022-23, making it a critical economic asset. Winning Haryana not only dents the BJP’s political standing but the tech-driven economic hubs, as the party would no longer control India’s major tech hubs.
A Congress victory in Haryana gives the INDIA bloc the tailwind for the upcoming Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.
The Opposition has claimed victory by increasing its tally in the Lok Sabha election, and a victory in the states will help it convince people that the INDIA bloc is gaining ground.
Winning Haryana could have a ripple effect on neighbouring states, particularly Punjab, where the Congress has traditionally been strong.
Although the AAP defeated the Congress government in Punjab in 2022, a Congress victory in Haryana might revitalise the party’s prospects for the next Punjab Vidhan Sabha election in 2022. Both Punjab and Haryana, agricultural states, have a lot in common, including a few voting blocs.
The success in Haryana demonstrates that Congress can regain ground in states where it has faced setbacks. This would be particularly significant as it would show that the party’s strategies and leadership changes are yielding positive results.
Apart from Punjab, Delhi Assembly is also expected to go to polls in February 2025, a state where the Congress has drawn a nil in the last two Assembly elections. Obviously, the Congress would like to have its government in the national capital too.
The Congress victory in Haryana, going by the India Today-CVoter exit poll, would be an important moment for the party as it would be marking a comeback after a decade-long political drought in the state.